Robinhood Markets beat Wall Street expectations in the second quarter despite weaker cryptocurrency trading, as the brokerage benefited from the rapid growth of prediction markets, a sector that keeps gaining speed even as the markets segment of crypto has slowed.
Robinhood Beats Estimates as Prediction Markets Help Offset Crypto Revenue Drop
29 July 2026 - 23:02 UTC
By Jona Jaupi
The online brokerage reported record quarterly revenue of $1.31bn and earnings per share of $0.62, ahead of analysts's forecasts of $1.28bn in revenue and $0.43 in earnings per share.
Crypto revenue, however, dropped 38% from a year earlier to $100mn - tracking the decline in crypto prices - even as total transaction revenue increased 44%. Crypto notional trading volume totalled $40bn, comprising $18bn on the Robinhood app, down 35% year over year, and $22bn on Bitstamp, according to the company's Q2 report, which was released on 29 Jul.
One of Robinhood's fastest-growing businesses during the second quarter was event contracts, which generated $156mn in revenue after increasing more than tenfold from a year earlier and rising from $147mn in the first quarter. The results underscore the quick rise of prediction markets, which were popularized by crypto-native platforms such as Polymarket before expanding into regulated finance.
"Our product velocity continues to deliver new products for customers and drive a more diversified business," CFO Shiv Verma said in the earnings release.
Prediction markets become a core business
Robinhood said trading activity reached record levels across stocks, options and prediction markets during the quarter.
The company recorded 13.6bn event contracts in the second quarter, supported by the routing of contracts since June to Rothera, its prediction market exchange and clearinghouse jointly owned with Susquehanna International Group and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Robinhood separately said more than 3.5bn contracts had been traded on Rothera to date.
Prediction markets first entered the mainstream during the 2024 US presidential election, when onchain platform Polymarket handled around $3.2bn in wagers on the Trump-Harris race alone. Since then, the combined monthly trading volume on Polymarket and its regulated rival Kalshi has climbed from less than $5bn in September 2025 to about $24bn in April 2026, according to Pew Research.
The trend accelerated during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, when Kalshi recorded a record $5.1bn in trading volume in the tournament's opening week as sports prediction markets attracted more users. Robinhood's Q2 earnings are the latest sign that prediction markets are booming as they spread beyond politics into sports and other popular events.
Building beyond crypto trading
Even as crypto trading slowed, Robinhood continued expanding its blockchain and digital asset business. On 1 Jul, Robinhood launched Robinhood Chain, a blockchain network designed for tokenized assets that has already amassed $344mn in total value locked, according to DeFiLlama.
That same day, the financial firm announced the launch of tokenized US stocks through Robinhood Wallet. The move allows round-the-clock trading of digital equities in more than 120 countries. It also launched Robinhood Earn, its first decentralized lending product.
Elsewhere, Robinhood revealed in its report that it now has 13 businesses that each generate more than $100mn in annualized revenue, supporting CFO Verma statement about a more diversified business. It also suggests the company has become less dependent on crypto market cycles.
As of 21:47UTC, Robinhood shares were down 4% in after-hours trading to $86.21 following the earnings release.
