SpaceX (SPCX) beat Wall Street's revenue estimate by $900mn in its first earnings report as a public company on 4 Aug, but its stock fell anyway: shares closed up 6.8% at $125.33 in the regular session, then dropped to around $111.90 in premarket trading by 09:25UTC on 5 Aug, an 11% decline from the close.
SpaceX's Earnings Beat Couldn't Outrun a $540mn Bitcoin Headline
5 August 2026 - 13:41 UTC
By Stu Clelland
The gap between the fundamentals and the reaction traces to one line: a $540mn decline in the value of SpaceX's Bitcoin holdings, disclosed for the first time now that the company reports to public shareholders. The figure is real. It's also a small fraction of SpaceX's market capitalization, which makes the size of the market's reaction to it the more interesting fact than the number itself.
The rule that put Bitcoin on the income statement
SpaceX has held Bitcoin since 2021 without disclosing quarterly swings in its value because it wasn't a shareholder-reporting company. That changed with its June IPO and with a FASB accounting standard, ASU 2023-08, that took effect for periods after December 2024 and requires fair-value crypto holdings to run through the income statement every quarter, gains and losses alike. Tesla has operated under the same rule for longer, and its experience is the closer precedent for what SpaceX investors should expect: a number that moves with Bitcoin's price every quarter, unrelated to how the actual business is performing.
Why $540mn overstates the story
SpaceX's 18,712 BTC was unchanged this quarter; the company didn't sell. The markdown is a half-year mark-to-market decline against the value at 2025 year-end, not a loss against what SpaceX paid. The cost basis is roughly $661mn, and the position was still worth $1.1bn at quarter-end, meaning SpaceX remains up close to $437mn against its purchase price even after the decline that made the headlines. Bitcoin has since recovered to around $64,000, putting the position at roughly $1.2bn today, about $100mn above the quarter-end mark used to calculate the loss that made headlines five weeks ago.
A custody gap that predates the IPO
Onchain analytics firm Arkham could trace only 8,285 BTC to SpaceX-linked wallets as of May, less than half the 18,712 BTC in the filing. That gap isn't new: SpaceX's 8-K from 18 Jun, filed before the IPO, disclosed the same 18,712 BTC figure, unchanged from what's reported now. The shortfall in Arkham's tracking has existed for months rather than appearing alongside the listing, which points to a standing custody structure that doesn't surface onchain rather than a burst of undisclosed buying timed to the IPO.
What the sell-off is pricing
SpaceX's lockup releases its first tranche on 6 Aug, two trading days after this report, freeing roughly 911.5mn shares, about 20% of the restricted block and more than the current public float. Shares are down 11% from Tuesday's close as of Wednesday's premarket, a decline that started with the earnings reaction and hasn't stopped. A Bitcoin headline that reads as a loss, landing two days before the stock's first real supply test since listing, gives short-term sellers a story to point to that has nothing to do with SpaceX's actual quarter.
