Market Snapshot
Bitcoin's (BTC) run of weekly green candles ended at four, with the original cryptocurrency slipping around 3% to trade near $63,400 after a Federal Reserve-driven midweek sell-off that Thursday's recovery only partly repaired. The retreat still left BTC up 7.3% for a July in which it touched $66,682. Ether (ETH) fared worse, abandoning its flirtation with the $2,000 mark to trade around $1,870 and leaving the ETH/BTC ratio pinned near 0.03. Elsewhere, the S&P 500 snapped its two-week losing streak, gaining about 1% for the week as a 15% surge in Amazon shares on strong cloud growth outweighed inflation nerves that sent the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007.
Macro Summary
On the macro front, the week will shift from central bank decisions to business activity and labour market data. The US employment report on Friday will be the main release, preceded by ADP payrolls, jobless claims and the ISM surveys. On the macro data side, China, Japan, the euro area, the UK and the US will publish July PMI figures. Euro area retail sales, German factory orders and industrial production, Japan's monetary base and China's trade balance will provide additional signals on global growth and liquidity. The geopolitical landscape will continue to be shaped by the conflict in the Middle East. During the weekend, the US called off major strikes as negotiations are expected to continue Monday. Oil was down in early Asian trading on the news.
Recap
- The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on 29 Jul, with only three officials backing a hike, while month-end US data kept rate-hike bets intact as Bitcoin (BTC) largely shrugged off the macro news. The month still closed on a constructive note for regulated products: US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds turned positive in July with about $173mn of net inflows after roughly $4.5bn of June outflows.
- Second-quarter earnings showed what thinner trading costs. Coinbase missed expectations as spot volume fell 35% from a year earlier, while Robinhood beat estimates with prediction markets helping offset a drop in crypto revenue. Strategy posted an $8.2bn quarterly loss on the Bitcoin slump, and Tether reported $1.5bn in second-quarter net operating profit as USDT widened its lead over stablecoin rivals.
- The CLARITY Act dispute rolled on, with New York's attorney general saying the bill falls short on fraud and ethics rules, adding state-level pressure as the Senate's 10 Aug recess nears. Across the Atlantic, the UK's long-awaited crypto rules arrived speaking fluent banker, while a Tory spokesperson complained that Dubai is "trying to steal our lunch".
- New York also sued Kalshi for allegedly operating an illegal gambling business, escalating the dispute over whether prediction markets fall under federal derivatives law or state gaming rules. The sector keeps drawing entrants regardless: Binance.US moved to add prediction markets as crypto trading slows, and Fanatics bought an exchange as sportsbooks seek control of prediction market rails.
- Exchange operators kept reshaping themselves. Kraken's parent agreed to buy Magic's wallet business with its own IPO plans remaining on hold, while HashKey merged its exchange and global apps into a single portal.
- Institutional infrastructure kept being laid regardless of the market mood. Circle split USDC between two charters with New York approval, Morgan Stanley rolled out staking-enabled Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) exchange-traded products and Mastercard named its stablecoin choice and AI agents among its second-half priorities.
- Security provided the week's cautionary tales. Hardware wallet maker Coinkite urged some Coldcard users to move their Bitcoin after disclosing a flaw that may have enabled the theft of more than 38mn,while WEMIX Foundation halted its bridges after an attacker minted 5.23mn WEMIX$ (stablecoins) and converted them into 30,736 WEMIX and 724,198 USDC.e
- MoonPay let ChatGPT and Claude move crypto, prompting warnings over AI's growing risks to the sector.
- Sandmark's seven-part Agentic AI series got under way, from a primer on how banking apps become AI agents to a map of the agentic finance stack.
Top Gainers
- ADA (Cardano) +14.2%
- UNI (Uniswap) +7.33%
- PI (Pi) +3.64%
Top Losers
- STABLE (Stable) -16.2%
- LDO (Lido DAO) -14.4%
- VVV (Venice Token) -14.0%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.17tn (-2.69% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.5% (vs 58.7% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 34/100 (vs 40 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 58/100 (vs 54 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): -$61.5mn (vs +$33.9mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): +$10mn (vs +$174.5mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $62,660 (-2.29%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $1,861.5 (+0.13%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 3 August
Event category
00:30 Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final: announced as 54.5, below forecast.
01:45 China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI: announced as 50.9, below the forecast of 51.5 but still above the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction.
06:00 Germany retail sales: Forecast to rise by 0.4% in June after a 1.1% increase in May. Annual sales are forecast to fall by 0.7%, after growth of 1.8%.
14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI: The Institute for Supply Management's headline index is forecast to ease to 53 from 53.3, remaining in expansionary territory.
23:50 Japan monetary base: The Bank of Japan's annual monetary base contraction is forecast to deepen to 14.0% from 13.7%.
Tuesday 4 August
Event category
07:00 Spain unemployment change: A decline of 17,000 in registered unemployment is forecast, after a fall of 28,700 in June.
08:00 Italy retail sales: Forecast to increase by 0.3% in June after a 0.2% rise in May, with annual growth slowing to 1.4% from 2.2%.
Wednesday 5 August
Event category
00:30 Japan services and composite PMI final: The final July services index is expected at 51.9, down from 52.2 in June, while the composite index is expected to rise to 53.1 from 52.8.
01:45 China services and composite PMI: The services index is forecast to ease to 53.7 from 54.1, with the composite index declining to 53.0 from 53.6. Both readings would remain consistent with private sector expansion.
08:00 to 08:30 Euro area and UK PMI final: The euro area composite index is expected at 51.9 and the UK composite index at 52.1, both above the 50-point expansion threshold.
12:15 US ADP employment: ADP's July estimate of private sector job creation follows a previous reading of 98,000 jobs added.
14:00 US ISM Services PMI: The Institute for Supply Management's July services survey follows a previous headline reading of 54.0, with the employment component at 51.2 and the prices component at 67.7.
Crypto event (token unlock)
Ethena (ENA) Token Unlock: 333.0mn ENA (~3.5% of circulating supply), worth roughly $27.2mn. The cliff-style release spans ecosystem development, core contributors, investors and the foundation. While moderate relative to circulating supply, the unlock introduces a meaningful amount of new supply that could generate modest short-term selling pressure.
Thursday 6 August
Event category
06:00 Germany factory orders: New factory orders are forecast to fall by 1.6% in June after rising by 1.9% in May. The release will provide an early indication of industrial demand in Europe's largest economy.
09:00 Euro area retail sales: Forecast to decline by 0.4% in June after increasing by 0.2% in May, with annual growth slowing to 0.9% from 1.6%.
12:30 US unemployment claims: The Labor Department publishes weekly initial and continuing jobless claims, providing the final labour market update before Friday's employment report. The latest reading showed 197,000 initial claims and 1.78mn continuing claims.
Friday 7 August
Event category
03:00 China trade balance: The trade surplus is forecast to narrow to $105.0bn from $125.62bn in June, with exports and imports offering a broader signal on external and domestic demand.
05:30 France unemployment rate: The second-quarter rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 8.1%.
06:00 Germany trade balance and industrial production: The trade surplus is forecast to narrow to €11.2bn from €19.1bn. Industrial production is forecast to decline by 0.6% in June after rising by 0.9% in May.
12:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' July employment report follows a previous reading of 57,000 jobs added, a 4.2% unemployment rate and 3.5% annual wage growth.
Sunday 9 August
Event category
- 01:30 China CPI and PPI: Annual consumer inflation is forecast to ease to 0.9% from 1.0%, while producer price inflation is forecast to rise to 4.3% from 4.1%.
